If we have an "it's the economy, stupid" midterm in 2026, it doesn't appear likely that it will turn out well for the Democrats.
Last year, look at this, 43% at this time - 43% of Americans said the top problem was economic. Come to this side of the screen. It's just considerably different. We're talking about 24% - we're talking about a drop of nearly 20 points. And more than that we're talking across all of the political groups. Democrats, independents, Republicans, we see the percentage who say the top problem is economic has been falling - it's been falling through the floor ...
The percentage of Americans who say their top problem is inflation has also been falling.
The average midterm election throughout history, Harry Enten explains, has the economy as the top priority for 35% of people. That's on an average year, not a financial crash type outlier.
But now, when the news tells us how bad it is, we're still floating at that 24% number.
Things will fluctuate between now and a year from now, but this is not the "doom and gloom" number Republicans might expect.
I'd like to feel it in my wallet a little more ... but the economic optimism is definitely spreading.
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