If you're making plans for a nice picnic or beach visit in 2034, you miiiight want to make sure you have a backup scheduled:
The chances of an asteroid striking Earth within the next decade has doubled in a matter of weeks, according to NASA astronomers.
The asteroid, discovered just after Christmas and named 2024 YR4, could strike the planet in December 2032 as it approaches during another journey around its orbit, according to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
Okay, it's always alarming when any chance for an asteroid strike goes up. We don't want it! Please no thank you!
But, we don't want to overstate the overall risk here:
When the detection of the asteroid was announced last month, NASA predicted just a 1.3% probability of it hitting Earth. The likelihood has increased to 2.1%.
It could definitely be worse! But, again, any uptick on that scale is not desirable.
To be sure, this is not exactly a civilization-ending asteroid. The rock that (allegedly) killed the dinosaurs was about six miles in diameter; per Wikipedia, this one is a good bit smaller:
The asteroid ranks at a 3/10 on the Torino impact hazard scale. According to that scale, a 3/10 means the rock may be capable of "localized destruction," though "most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment" as a non-threat.
You can see here one possible model of a collision scenario that would occur in December of 2032:
Let's hope this thing gives Earth a good wide berth!
P.S. Now check out our latest video 👇
