You gotta feel for Joe Biden. He spent like five decades trying to get to the White House, and then he finally goes and wins it and suddenly everything is going to pot.
The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation will spark a recession in the United States that begins late next year, Deutsche Bank warned on Tuesday.
The recession call -- the first from a major bank -- reflects growing concern that the Fed will hit the brakes on the economy so hard that it will inadvertently end the recovery that began just two years ago.
"We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession," Deutsche Bank economists led by Matthew Luzzetti wrote in the report.
I mean it's sort of odd... you'd think that if the "aggressive tightening of monetary policy" were going to lead to a full-blown recession, the Fed could just... not do that? But apparently that's not an option.
The bad news, thankfully, isn't as bad as it could be:
The good news is Deutsche Bank is not forecasting a deep and painful recession like the past two downturns.
Rather, the bank expects a "mild recession," with unemployment peaking above 5% in 2024. That would still translate to considerable layoffs. During the Great Recession unemployment peaked at far higher levels of 14.7% in 2020 and 10% in 2009.
As the old saying goes:
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