I know y'all in MAGA world are going to be angry with this, but maybe read a bit before writing "you guys just love to hate Trump" down in the comments.
I'm not here to analyze Trump himself: I'm here to tell you where popular opinion stands. On one hand, post-arrest, Trump's popularity with the Republican base is soaring to new heights:
However, outside of the GOP base, Trump is in an absolutely abysmal position, according to a new ABC/Ipsos poll (take it with a grain of salt, but still).
Trump may very well win the GOP nomination, but if these numbers hold true, which I'll admit is a BIG if, he's going to have the uphill battle of a lifetime to win the presidency.
- 53% of all Americans believe that Trump intentionally broke the law, despite the fact that Alvin Bragg is essentially making up a new law in order to get Trump. Most Americans don't know that fact and don't really care.
- Only 20% believe Trump is innocent
- Trump also has only a 25% favorability rating among all voters
If the silent majority is real, they're going to need to do a lot of work to turn perception around.
Democrats are largely convinced of Trump's culpability, with 87% saying he intentionally did something illegal, and a majority of independents (57%) agree.
Of note, the former president is enjoying weaker-than-usual support from his own partisans with only a plurality of Republicans (45%) thinking Trump did nothing wrong, and the rest of the party split among the belief he intentionally did something illegal (19%), he was wrong but it was unintentional (18%) or they simply do not know (17%).
The narrative for the witch hunt is so strong that you can't even get a majority of Republicans polled to say they think Trump didn't break the law!
Even if the whole thing is 10-20 points off (as is typical for the fake news media), that's not enough to make Trump's candidacy for president a good bet.
Keep that popcorn handy as the primaries heat up!
