With all the Virginia election post-mortems being published, there has been one theme that, at least in my estimation, is far and away the most important to consider moving forward into 2022 and 2024. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it revolves around former President Donald Trump.
As Republicans surged to an impressive showing last week, I saw more than one commentator share this general sentiment: Democrats need Trump more than Republicans do. In other words, Trump's volatility and polarizing nature benefits Democrats trying to rally their base far more than it encourages Republican participation in elections.
One of the more perplexing realities of the 2020 election, and one that has fueled a belief in some quarters of the Republican Party that the race was stolen, is how such an unimpressive ticket like Biden/Harris received more votes than any other in American history. It's become a standard, sarcastic tag line that is attached to every viral Biden gaffe or buffoonish answer: "The most popular president in history."
The truth is, I couldn't agree more. There's no way that Joseph Biden or Kamala Harris could motivate 81 million people to get out and vote for them. In fact, I would say on their own they could maybe muster half of that total. The majority of Biden voters in 2020 were not voting for him; they were voting against Trump. In fact, there is a frighteningly large portion of the population that would have voted for a piece of drywall if it was the only viable Trump alternative.
Therein lies the great difficulty for the Republican Party heading into 2022 and 2024. The former president commands legions of die-hard supporters who would walk over broken glass to support him, but he also motivates an equal or greater number of die-hard despisers who would walk over twice as much broken glass to defeat him.
In Virginia, a state that Trump lost by 10 points, that's precisely what Terry McAuliffe based his campaign around – marrying Glenn Youngkin and Donald Trump in the mind of the voter. The Democrat Party in the Old Dominion worked tirelessly to that end, even putting out fliers that showcased how Trump "endorsed" Youngkin's bid. There's no question that the state flipped red because Youngkin ran his own campaign that was sober, serious, and separated entirely from Trumpian rhetoric.
So is that the path forward for Republicans in 2022 and 2024?
Not so fast.
In a disgruntled blue state like Virginia, there's no question that the Youngkin campaign's departure from Trumpism was necessary for victory. And swing states like New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, and Georgia will likely be similar.
But believing that such an approach – that is, ignoring Trump's overtures, not seeking his endorsement, not embracing his tough-talking combativeness – will work effectively in other pivotal contests is naïve. There are more than a few states where loyalty to Trump is high, and betraying him is considered by some a crime against humanity.
Take Arizona, where allegiance to Trump is already playing a decisive role in shaping the 2022 Senate contest. There, the state's Republicans seem split over the effect that the party's continuing efforts to contest the 2020 presidential election results are going to have on independents and disgruntled Democrats. Half of them believe the continued Republican objection is turning off moderate voters, and the other half believe it is necessary to restore Republicans' confidence in the process.
That's precisely the disaster that unfolded for Georgia Republicans in the two pivotal Senate run-off races in 2020. Republican officials like Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger endured the wrath of Trump for certifying Joe Biden's victory there.
Both Republican Senate candidates were in a terrible position. If they supported Trump's claims, they were telling voters that the elections were rigged and there was no point to show up on run-off day; if they didn't support Trump's claims, they were traitors to the party and didn't deserve Republican support. The end result was Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
And then there's this:
Remember, the Left exulted in Big Tech's decision to boot Trump from their platforms. They proclaimed it a victory for decency, honesty, and the only suitable outcome for civilized man. But the absence of his voice has exposed a glaring void in a party whose only real appeal to voters had been "Trump is the devil and we aren't Trump." How remarkable to consider that the former president's social media martyrdom was the worst thing that could have happened to the media and the Left.
So where does all this go? Will 2022 bring a slew of Youngkin-style Republicans and a red wave, or will it be a replay of Georgia's run-offs? Is it conceivable that even after a miserable four years, that Biden could be re-elected should Trump decide to run again and the Republican Party splits over it?
The answers to those questions, I think, all comes down to the future decisions of one man – and good luck predicting those.
