It's the day after the 2022 midterm elections, the red tsunami that wasn't. The hot takes will be coming in faster than ever, and so why not add one more? Here are five things that I think are as plain as day, yet will also be overlooked in the aftermath:
1. Politics is localized, polarized, and balkanized
The polarization in this country is worse than many anticipated. What else explains the willingness of a significant portion of the electorate to remain loyal to the party in power even in the face of rampant economic malaise? There may well be a growing number of American citizens disenchanted with both the Republican and Democrat parties in surveys. But those independent voters didn't lead to any discernable shifts in expected electoral fortunes of either party. Republicans dominated in red areas, Democrats in blue. Persisting with economic policy that is devastating your own 401k, because you find it preferable to ever voting for a Republican, is one whale of a strategy. But that's where we are – the balkanizing of the electorate.
2. Man of the hour
There's no way any fair-minded person can look at this night as anything but a commendation on the leadership of Governor DeSantis. These have not been the easiest four years for anybody in leadership to navigate: from political turmoil, the rise of wokeism, Covid and the relentless media circus that surrounded it, natural disasters, economic collapse, inflation. But DeSantis defied the odds so impressively that he shattered records and flipped the blue stronghold of Miami-Dade County red – at least for now.
3. Time to turn the page
It was not a great night for Trump-supported candidates who lost entirely winnable races – including one against a mentally and cognitively incoherent person. That, coupled with the massive night for DeSantis, certainly portends a potentially rancorous primary between those two heavyweights. Trump seems to notice the same, using the occasion of critical midterm races to put down the night's hero, only because he sees him as a threat to his own personal political future:
"I don't know if he is running. I think if he runs, he court hurt himself very badly," Trump said. "I really believe he could hurt. Himself badly. I think he would be making a mistake, I think the base would not like it – I don't think it would be good for the party. If he runs, he runs,' Trump continued. "I would tell you things about him that won't be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps his wife."
Anyone who still believes Trump is in this for the good of conservatism is racked with self-delusion. Exit polls (which are, in my estimation, always of questionable reliability) found that President Joe Biden is exceedingly unpopular with voters. Those same polls found that former President Trump is even more unpopular. Democrats had one hope in this election cycle, and that was to make the election about Trumpism. In the areas where they did, they were able to stave off a red wipeout. Any party that has the possibility of something as formidable as a DeSantis/Tim Scott presidential ticket in 2024, but goes back to a 76-year-old former president who has so far defied the tradition of ex-presidents consistently gaining in popularity once out of office, is in deep trouble.
4. Republican election-night heroes lost forever
It's actually possible to consider this the biggest disappointment of the night for the Republican Party. Three candidates who are no strangers to raising large amounts of donor money to then unceremoniously chuck into the paper shredder: Beto O'Rourke, Charlie Crist, and Stacey Abrams all lost big. Why is that a disappointment for Republicans you ask? Simple:
- Beto has now lost a ridiculously expensive Senate race, a ridiculously expensive presidential primary, and a ridiculously expensive gubernatorial race, at a cost to Democrat donors of almost $200 million.
- Crist has now lost a Senate race as a Republican, a Senate race as an independent, and two governor races as a Democrat. He has squandered millions of Democrat PAC dollars
- Abrams has now lost two consecutive gubernatorial races after receiving utterly undeserved media support. She has squandered more money in those two races than both Beto and Crist.
If experts are right in saying last night's crushing defeats ended the careers of all three, the Republicans are losing some of their most reliable performers.
5. Gridlock is good
Assuming the Republicans are able to pull out a slim House majority, that means gridlock in D.C., regardless of what happens in the Senate. And though political pundits love to deride the "lack of action" in Washington, or the "inability to get anything done" in the halls of government due to split party rule, the truth is that is the best thing in the world for average Americans.
One of the key arguments lobbed by the anti-federalists at the time of the ratification of the Constitution was this very idea – that the founders had created so complicated a system of law making that it would be very difficult to pass laws.
James Madison put it succinctly in the Federalist Papers that such a reality is a very good thing for freedom.
