The 2024 election will begin soon enough, and in some ways it's already under way in much of the media. Concerned about the status of their party's candidate, the mainstream press is already floating trial balloon replacements like this…
…only to find out how comical such a thought is to the vast majority of Americans at this juncture. As it stands for Democrats, if Biden doesn't run, there's no easy way to get away from running Harris without undermining all of the identity politics nonsense they have chosen to embrace and foist upon the country.
On the Republican side, it is increasingly clear that former President Trump will run for a second term. When he declares, it will be virtually impossible for anyone else to claim the nomination, and anyone who tries will be seen as a turncoat to the MAGA millions, thus curtailing any political future in what has clearly become Trump's party. Consequently, it's far more likely that most potential rivals will either bide their time or cozy up to the former president rather than challenge him.
All of this means that, for now, we are likely looking at a Biden/Trump rematch, signifying there will be more on the ballot than just the candidates. Riding on its outcome will also be every claim of 2020 voter fraud, the charge of a stolen election, and the declaration of an illegitimate presidency. In other words, 2024 is shaping up (for now) to be a 2020 sequel with twice the rancor.
Unconvinced that a vengeful Trump can rein in his temperament enough to win, folks on the Left are becoming increasingly panicked by the emerging theory that the former president is playing the long coup. Axios had the story, as did the Atlantic before them.
The premise goes like this: Trump attempted to have his minions overturn the 2020 election by getting the state legislatures and key election officials in the swing states he disputed (Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) to certify Republican electors rather than Democrat ones, claiming the official election outcome that showed a Biden victory was the result of fraud. His effort failed because not enough Republicans in those states were willing to go along with the scheme. Since that time, Trump has been diligently working to destroy and remove those "disloyal" Republicans and replace them with loyalists who will do his bidding in 2024 should the opportunity arise.
I have to admit finding the whole theory pretty humorous. One thing I remember so vividly from the Trump term was the tendency of his supporters to spin any bizarre or inexplicable tweet, statement, response, or action as being part of some master political gamesmanship the rest of us just didn't understand. "Trump is on a whole different level," they would say, alluding to the former president playing 4D chess above our heads. Liberal elites in media and the DNC mocked the MAGA legions for such a belief, but now as they speak of this "long coup" strategy are essentially claiming the same thing: "Trump the mad political scientist is outsmarting us all."
I get that the Dems loathe the man and can't stomach the thought of his potential return to power. But there's a far more plausible path for President Trump returning to the White House that they should be focused on. And it's a path that has absolutely nothing to do with Trump.
- Build Back Better has, like it or not, become the signature legislation representing the Biden administration, and it's an unmitigated disaster economically. To call it a flop is an insult to LeBron James, as the policy threatens to exacerbate inflation, which is already at alarming levels.
- Vaccine mandates are being struck down as unconstitutional (obviously). It's one thing to be the president who tried to do something popular that later gets knocked down by the courts. But pushing something unconstitutional and unpopular is not a good statement heading into a re-election campaign.
- The anti police posturing has failed, crime has soared, and violent crime has reached unprecedented levels in cities across America.
- Covid fatigue is real, the specter of lockdowns continues to haunt the economic climate, and failed mitigation strategies continue to be imposed on people without justification. That's especially bad for a president who built his campaign around "shutting down the virus." The complaint Biden used successfully in 2020 was that Trump wouldn't listen to science. In 2024, Trump will use successfully the fact that Biden has manipulated the science.
- CRT debates have morphed into challenges of parental rights with the Democrat Party lining up behind teacher unions and lobby groups while Republicans are seen as fighting for parents.
And then there's this:
I understand the leftist impulse to obsess over Trump has not worn off. But truth be told, if he does return to power in 2024, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
