Anyone even slightly skilled at how to read the political tea leaves knows exactly what is coming. Sometime shortly after the Republicans sweep to power in the midterm elections, former President Donald Trump will claim the red wave signals two things:
- The victories would not have happened without his endorsements and involvement.
- Republican victories are proof that voters are mad about Biden and the Democrats stealing the 2020 election, and the right's big win represents a national pro-Trump sentiment.
I don't believe either of those two things are true, but Trump will. Feeding off those assumptions, Trump will announce that he owes it to the country to run for president again in 2024, officially throwing his hat in the ring to ensure he is the first candidate to do so.
The Trump political operation will begin almost immediately a campaign of assumption. They will behave as though the nomination is a fait accompli and any potential primary challenger would be regarded a Democrat Party sympathizer, seeking to selfishly stand in the way of the progress a second Trump term would mean for America.
Let me stress I don't want any of this to happen, but it seems all but guaranteed. So, what happens then?
The majority of potential Republican candidates, from Nikki Haley to Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton to Tim Scott, will likely bow out of contention. Mike Pence will also likely choose to spare his family the public fileting that Trump would gleefully commit against his former running mate, exacting revenge for Pence's perceived betrayal on January 6th.
At that point, all that will be left to run against Trump in the primary will be some futile Huntsman/Kasich-like outsider – Liz Cheney, perhaps...
And, God-willing, Governor Ron DeSantis.
While he has dutifully downplayed any interest in the White House (see his perfectly scripted debate line: "The only worn-out old donkey I'm looking to put out to pasture right now is Charlie Crist"), he's it. His first term as governor has been a political masterclass, dealing with both manmade and natural disasters with precision. Even far left media activists like Bill Maher and Sunny Hostin have acknowledged as much, the former praising DeSantis during the Covid era as "a voracious consumer of the scientific literature," the latter lamenting that he is "wicked smart."
Any belief that DeSantis should bide his time, wait for Trump to finish what he started, and then be the heir apparent, emanates from a mind that doesn't understand U.S. political history at all. American politics is all about momentum and timing.
Barack Obama was not "ready" for the presidency in 2008, and it was widely regarded as Hillary Clinton's turn anyway. Political experts suggested he would be best served by waiting, gaining experience, and deferring to his party's current standard bearer. But Obama rightly recognized that he would never be as popular or electable as he was at that moment in time. He seized upon it, and the rest is history.
The same is obviously true for DeSantis. If he sits out of 2024, he will finish his second term as Florida's governor in 2026. Who knows what will have happened in the intervening years? Who knows if DeSantis will enjoy as successful of a second term as he has his first? Who knows what the national sentiment will be towards Republicans after (potentially) another four years of Trump's leadership?
No, if DeSantis eyes the presidency, it's likely 2024 or never.
There's little question he has what it takes. While Charlie Crist is hardly a formidable political force, what DeSantis just did to him in the Florida gubernatorial debate was masterful.
Of course in 2024 it won't be Crist across from him on the debate stage, but is there any reason to believe that the Democrats have someone stronger or more capable waiting in the wings? Who would that be? The current president or vice president who seem locked in a vicious competition to see who can publicly complete a coherent sentence first? The current governor of California whose economic mismanagement is as appalling as his perverse social activism?
DeSantis is smart, seemingly always prepared, has a long track record of commitment to conservative policy, and carries no glaring personal or political baggage. He has effectively guided the 3rd most populated state through the Covid upheaval and subsequent national economic malaise with unrivaled competence and success.
And the fact that at 44 years old he is nearly half the age of both Trump and Biden, the two oldest presidents in American history, doesn't hurt.
Does a DeSantis vs. Trump primary wound the Republican Party too deeply for it to coalesce around the eventual winner? Does it permanently split the party into a conservative wing and a MAGA populist wing? Would DeSantis be able to thwart the Trump juggernaut that ran roughshod over a slate of impressive candidates in 2016? Can the Florida governor avoid an ugly exchange with a bitter Trump that costs him MAGA support? I have no idea.
But for the sake of our country, I sure hope the Florida governor tries.
