I always have a tough time trusting these polls.
However, the AtlasIntel poll, which was the most accurate on our last time around, has just released these numbers which paint a rosy picture for Trump.
These guys nailed the final numbers in 2020, meaning they favored Biden more heavily than most, and this new poll shows that the numbers for Kamala are nowhere near where she needs to be in order to win.
This could mean a landslide victory for Trump.
At first glance, this is huge news for Donald Trump in the final weeks of the campaign. A lead like this in the national popular is widely seen as translating into a stunning Electoral College victory for him.
According to Nate Silver, a 2-3 point lead nationally for Trump would translate to a 100% chance of victory.
Trump, according to these numbers, is expected to win, much like 2016, while losing the popular vote. However, if he can win the popular vote in 2024 there is little chance he can lose the election.
This is huge, and it's honestly very difficult to believe when you take a closer look.
That's Trump winning every single swing state.
However, this is based on Cook Political Report, assuming the AtlasIntel general election numbers are correct. So AtlasIntel's swing-state polling, the numbers suggesting that Trump should win, doesn't mean he will win all these swing states.
The main issue lies in the disconnect between Trump's national lead and the battleground state data. If Trump truly has a two- to three-point edge across the country, he should be performing significantly better in swing states than this poll suggests.
These state-by-state results are not close to what intuition and historical trends would tell us.
But in 2024, anything is possible.
Which means you should still get out and vote on November 5.
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