Remember when sanctions were going to cripple Russia, oust Putin, and free Europe from Russia's grip forever?

Instead, the Russian ruble is at a 7-year high, Putin is still in charge, and Western Europe is panicking over low supplies of fuel. In the meantime, we're throwing billions of dollars at the Ukrainians so they can resell our missiles on the black market... and Ukraine is losing.

This "Armchair Warlord" has some interesting thoughts:

This was a campaign that NATO "should" have been able to conduct safely and easily. Insurgencies require minimal supplies, the economic strength of the West would weather any side-effects of the sanctions regime, and this would always remain "short of war."

...and hence NATO's armies would have to do very little beyond deter a desperate Russian lunge and be prepared to move into Ukraine and, should circumstances so provide, a balkanized Russia as peacekeepers after the final collapse.

In the actual event, the precise opposite of this has happened. Ukraine has stayed on its feet, but turned into a black hole for Western money and arms. Meanwhile sanctions have boomeranged, leaving Russia largely unharmed while devastating Western economies.

I can only explain this result - and the fact that NATO leadership went into this war with the expectations they did and a "straight face" - as a near-total failure to evaluate the threat (and even "friendly forces") properly and then plan realistically in light of that.

Something to think about the next time you hear someone talking about how the war hasn't turned out according to Russian expectations - they've got a much better track record than NATO does thus far. /end

Addendum: The NATO plan was obviously terrible, by the way - it was basically:

Step 1: Sanctions!

Step 2: Give NLAWs and Stingers to insurgents in Europe!

Step 3: ???

Step 4: Victory!

Look, if someone gave me a plan like this and suggested we use it, I would tell him no.

What do you think? From my perspective, I'm not surprised that the same people who botched Afghanistan, hire based off diversity instead of merit, and routinely virtue signal about rainbows instead of training men to be lethal were tactically wrong in Ukraine.

I just hope we get some people in charge who know what they're doing soon!

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