Let's talk about the latest economic report before all the "muh GDP" boys get too excited

Image for article: Let's talk about the latest economic report before all the "muh GDP" boys get too excited

Joel Abbott

Dec 23, 2025

Everything is expensive, no one can afford a home, we're about $40 trillion in debt, but the GDP is up, baby!

An acceleration in consumer spending, up 3.5% from 2.5% in the second quarter, and exports, up 8.8% from -1.8% in the second quarter, were the main contributors to the third-quarter GDP reading.

The biggest caveat here is found in CNN's revised headline:

The nerds call this a "K-shaped" economy.

While wealthy Americans continue to drive much of the growth in consumer spending, lower- and middle-income consumers have been much more cautious. Economists call that phenomenon a 'K-shaped" economy.

'The K-shaped economy is staring us right in the face,' James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said in a note on Tuesday following the release of the GDP report. Economic growth, he said, is 'concentrated among higher-income households and tech-led investment, while broader consumer confidence remains under pressure.'

You can see what CNN is doing here. They are inserting the idea that Trump is a rich man for rich men into the body of what is supposed to be a neutral article.

If it were 2015, I'd give them the benefit of the doubt. But now? Nah.

That doesn't mean CNN is entirely wrong, though. Regardless of what they want the reader to infer about Orange Man Bad™ and his motives, the reality is that regular Americans are struggling.

Less than two hours after the GDP report was released, the Conference Board reported consumer confidence declined substantially this month, down 3.8 points from November. The December reading of 89.1 was the lowest since April, when Trump introduced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs.

The report showed that consumers' views of their family's current financial situation dipped into negative territory for the first time in nearly four years.

If you have the ability to invest, things are probably going well for you. A.I. tech is booming, America is in a new space race, and climate regulations are being scrapped.

But for a single-income family of 6 supported by a father with a degree and 15 years of business experience? You aren't going out to eat anymore except for fast food (ask me how I know).

Consumers across all income levels also expressed more concern about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate recently hitting a four-year high.

Gen Z in particular is being cut out of the job market as American companies have increased the number of foreign workers being shipped to America to replace American jobs. The employed/unemployed rates among Gen Z men with degrees are essentially the same right now, meaning an entire generation is stuck.

While those foreigners and the wealthy people they work for are increasing GDP, the American Dream is increasingly vanishing for the majority of Americans.

It is also worth noting, as Daniel Horowitz of The Blaze did, that the number one category of spending was HEALTHCARE.

This means that the largest pillar holding up U.S. GDP is made of hospital services for aging wealthy boomers. The second category of spending involved recreational goods and vehicles, or golf and fishing accessories for retiring boomers.

More from Horowitz:

We see the same dynamic with he employment numbers from BLS. Whereas just 500k new jobs were created on net since January, a shocking 361k of those were from…health care!

Oh, but look at that increase in GDP!

You can hear the sarcasm (hopefully).

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (how much you pay for goods and services) also increased by 3.5%, but disposable personal income levels remained flat, meaning people are paying more but earning no extra money.

(For the kids in the back, this means everyone who relies entirely on a paycheck became poorer.)

Economic data also shows a slowdown outside of a few key industries like A.I., which may think has reached the height of its "bubble."

...what does this mean in plain English? If you are not a Mag7 AI company, health care or, defense, your company - large or small - is in a recession.

Still, despite all that naysaying, the growth shows that Trump's tariff policy has not, as of yet, brought about the collapse that all the experts predicted, and that is an important metric.

While the economy might not be great for anyone except older rich people and their Indian employees, it is still growing despite what we were told about Trump's policies.

Where things go from here is anybody's guess.

Life is increasingly unaffordable for the middle class. If you are on welfare, got into America on an H-1B visa, or play golf with your buddies weekly to talk about your investments, things are probably going well.

But if you're young or trying to raise a family right now, you probably wish the entire system would burn down sooner rather than later.

This is why the Trump administration should be cautious about messages like this:

They can trot out a guy to say it's a Christmas present, but for regular Americans like me, Christmas has never felt more economically uncertain.

Somalis have stolen billions of tax dollars, welfare recipients are filling up their carts at Costco, Silicon Valley is talking about early retirements, and the Indians being hired by the thousands in Texas and Ohio are excited to take their fill of America's bounty.

But for the average guy, this temporary increase in GDP means nothing. He just came home ragged from another brutal shift and saw the newest bill that came in the mail.

  • He can't afford healthcare for his kids because the premiums are thousands of dollars a month, but he isn't poor enough to get government care.

  • He wonders if he'll be able to give his kids a nice vacation in the next three to four years.

  • He wonders if he'll have money to fix the car or plumbing the next time it breaks.

  • He heard his neighbor was hit by an illegal trucker but the trucker didn't have insurance so his neighbor was left on the hook for the bill.

Those Americans couldn't care less about Republicans tooting the horn about "muh GDP."


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