The housing market has been going up, up, up for several years, with no end in sight. Well, it appears now that, yes, the end may very well be in sight:
Mortgage rates are back on the upswing, after a brief decline in May, and the housing market is still suffering from a lack of listings. As a result, mortgage demand continues to drop.
Total mortgage application volume fell 6.5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Demand hit the lowest level in 22 years.
Wave good-bye to the insane housing economy!
Signs are down across the board:
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.40% from 5.33%, with points rising to 0.60 from 0.51 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.
Refinance demand, which is most sensitive to weekly rate moves, fell another 6% for the week and was 75% lower than the same week one year ago. The vast majority of mortgage holders now have rates considerably lower than the current one, and even those who would like to pull cash out of their homes are choosing second mortgages, rather than refinancing their first liens.
Does this mean prices may go a good bit lower in the near future, opening the market to more first-time buyers? Don't count on it: Inventory is still precipitously low, which will keep prices elevated for some time.
But this still could be the beginning of the end for the unimaginably expensive and white-hot competitive housing market we've all been dealing with for the past couple of years.
Let's hope the correction—when it fully arrives—isn't too painful.
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