I'm sure this has nothing to do with the Ukraine War or will influence it in any way.
NATO is planning to hold military exercises - the largest since the Cold War era - next year in late winter and early spring. Not only that, but they're holding the exercises right on Russia's doorstep in Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
Yeah man, did someone say World War 3?
Here's the details:
At a moment the war in Ukraine grows more and more unpredictable, given neither Russia nor the West have shown any signs of backing down, the FT writes that "Nato is preparing its biggest live joint command exercise since the cold war next year, assembling more than 40,000 troops to practice how the alliance would attempt to repel Russian aggression against one of its members"...
NATO officials were quoted in FT as saying the planned exercises are seen as a key part of "demonstrating to Moscow that the alliance is prepared to fight."
Steadfast Defender is slated to run in February and March, and is likely to be seen as a provocation by Moscow given it will take place in various locales across Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states - the latter which border Russia.
"Russian action against one of its members."
That's Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which reads,
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking . . . such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
NATO is currently running military drills in the Baltic Sea with this same goal in mind; however, these exercises coming up at the end of winter will be much larger.
Crucially, the Baltic Sea coastline - where NATO has increasingly flexed its military might with more and more exercises - is very important to Russia as its strategic Kaliningrad exclave sits on it, sandwiched between two NATO members, Poland and Lithuania. Last year's Defender drills had been the largest up to that point, and they continue to get expanded year-by-year.
So mark this down as an escalation if you'd like, but as long as we continue to flex our muscles over there in the Baltic Sea I think we'll be good.
Much better than the alternative, which would be to not have a strong presence there, allowing Russia easier access to western expansion.
What a wild year it's gonna be, eh?
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