Now, these are some interesting statistics.
Ryan Burge, the Research Director over at My Faith Counts has released a report based on the latest numbers from the Cooperative Election Study that shows the religious "nones" seem to have reached their statistical ceiling.
(Or maybe religion has reached its floor.)
Nearly 1/4 of Americans (and close to half of Gen Z) are still irreligious (although that number is apparently dropping, likely due to based young men).
Still, these latest numbers show that abandoning religion entirely is a dying trend.
Here's a graph made by Burge showing the rise and now plateau of religious "nones" in America over the last decade and a half.
Consider this. In 2008, the share of Americans who were non-religious in the Cooperative Election Study was 21%. Five years later, it had increased to 30%. That's a massive shift in such a short window of time - really stunning for anyone who studies demographics. Between 2013 and 2018, the nones rose from 30% to 32%. Just two points in five years. Then, there was a significant bump in 2019 to 35%. That's notable and shouldn't be overlooked.
But here's the share of the sample that is non-religious in the last few years:
- 2020: 34%
- 2021: 36%
- 2022: 35%
- 2023: 36%
So, from 2019 to 2023, the rise has stopped. This is why Burge and others are theorizing that the "nones" have reached their ceiling.
Burge also breaks this down by generation, showing the plateau is cross-generational.
The nones have decreased in every age group except for the dwindling silent generation and the aging boomers. But young people, the cohort that has long been the most concerning, are apparently returning to religion (or at least identifying with religion at a higher rate).
The numbers show that Gen Z are not only as religious as everyone else, but the only major statistical difference is that Gen Zs are much less likely to be Protestant.
Here's another helpful graph about generational differences in religion.
Catholicism is hovering around 20% regardless of age, while younger people are only about 20% Protestant compared to the oldest folks at 50%.
Burge thinks all of these trends may signal that we have reached a sort of stasis in the American demographic after a few decades of upheaval.
I don't want to be too hyperbolic. But I am a preacher and it runs through my blood. This really may be the end of an era in American religious demography. The trend lines might have reached an inflection point, and we can demarcate religious history around this time period. Hopefully, before I wind up my career in a few decades I can make sense of all of this.
Soren Kierkegaard once wrote, "Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards." It's exciting to be living in this moment right now.
Are the religious nones really done growing? Where does America go from here?
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