Amazing.
Blue Origin is the space-tourism company founded by Jeff Bezos that's been starting to expand into serious rockets. Starship is the super-heavy rocket of Elon Musk's SpaceX, which has revolutionized rocketry over the last two decades.
I love how Will Lockett doesn't even believe his own headline!
The claim comes after Blue Origin managed the second launch of a heavy-lift vehicle called "New Glenn."
After the roaring success of Blue Origin's second New Glenn flight, which not only reached orbit and recovered its booster but also launched two probes to Mars (take note, SpaceX, this is how you design a rocket!), they are taking things up a notch with the New Glenn 9x4. This is a recently announced 'super heavy' variant of the New Glenn, and its silly name comes from its engine configuration, as its booster has nine rocket engines, and its upper stage has four.
So, while Blue Origin successfully had a second launch and are planning on launching a "super heavy" variant at some time in the future, Starship has had 11 and did this a full year ago:
I have already covered the standard New Glenn rocket (read more here), and it is damn impressive. Like a Falcon 9, it is partially reusable, with the booster landing back on Earth. It can take 45 tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), 13 tons to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO), which is five tons more than SpaceX's Falcon Heavy, and seven tons to Tran Lunar Injection (TLI, equivalent to payload to the lunar surface). While launch costs for New Glenn are not publicly known, they have been estimated at between $55 million and $68 million, which is about $30 million cheaper than a Falcon Heavy launch (with all three boosters recovered).
Okay, so a launch platform that has less of a proven track record has a few cheaper components, but what was that thing you said in the middle?
While launch costs for New Glenn are not publicly known...
A lot of "estimates" and projections on this one!
The article understates Starship's payload potential (actual target is 100-150 tons) and ignores full-reuse potential.
Assumes 5 launches/year for refuels (SpaceX does 140+).
Ignores how SpaceX has driven down the cost of launching payloads 95% since the 2000s, from $50,000 - $100,000/kg to $2,500 per kilogram today (on Falcon 9), with the goal of $10 per kilogram, which would accelerate space missions on an exponential scale.
He wants us to trust his math that Starship has a 5% explosion rate that would mean an 88.5% chance of an explosion over 42 refueling missions.
Doesn't address areas where Starship edges out New Glenn (70-ton LEO) for Mars and fleets.
Ignores New Glenn's expendable upper stage, the unproven record of Lockheed Martin's tug for lunar missions, and the history of delays from Blue Origin.
Competition is great in any industry, and if Blue Origin can give SpaceX a run for their money, it's fine by me.
But Will here sounds like an Android or Glock fanboy explaining why their brand is the best!
No matter how you spin it, New Glenn and its new big brother, the New Glenn 9x4, are quicker, more efficient, less dangerous and less expensive than Starship in terms of space exploration.
And then there's this, which is what the article is REALLY about: Elon Derangement Syndrome.
I am glad that the divorce crisis billionaire is undermining the Nazi-saluting billionaire. It is still evil, but a lesser one.
I'll leave you with a few other quotes from guys like Will who thought they knew everything about an industry and got it spectacularly wrong:
"Neither RedBox nor Netflix are even on the radar screen in terms of competition" - Blockbuster CEO Jim Keyes
"[The iPhone] doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard." - Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" - IBM President Thomas Watson
"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months" - 20th Century Fox cofounder Daryl Zanuck
"Blue Origin Might Make Starship Obsolete" - Will Lockett
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