We know the fallout from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is bad. We can also certainly assume it's going to get worse.
How worse? Well:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning that the world must brace for a significant economic slowdown, explosive inflation, and potential violent societal unrest due to skyrocketing energy and food prices as famine and depression loom in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine...
The Russian economy is expected to be hit by the biggest recession it has seen since the fall of the Soviet Union. It will contract by 8.5 percent this year as sanctions from the U.S. and Europe bite.
But it's not just those two countries that are being impacted. The IMF is saying that almost all countries will contract due to the war, potentially leading to worldwide devastation. It emphasized that the global economic outlook has "worsened significantly" since January.
The IMF's most recent Global Financial Stability Report specifically warns:
The repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in terms of economic damage will be greater for the war region and Europe. In particular, official sanctions and further escalations thereof, multiple companies voluntarily severing ties with Russia, together with steps taken by several countries to wean off Russian energy imports, will cause substantial damage to the Russian economy. .... The severity of the disruptions in commodity markets and to global supply chains will weigh heavily on the outlook for inflation, the global economy, and possibly macro-financial stability. In addition, record high food prices could have implications for social unrest in some emerging and frontier markets.
All of that is... not good.
I mean, can the IMF be wrong? Certainly. Not every prediction everyone makes comes true.
Then again... I mean:
And like...
And, well....
The IMF could still certainly be wrong. But...how likely is that? At present, not very, it seems.
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