I was never all that good at probability...or statistics...or really anything involving math, numbers, figures, equations, all that stuff.
But this seems simple enough to understand. A coin toss, after all, is one of the most ancient traditions practiced by humanity:
Researchers at the University of Amsterdam recently made a surprising discovery that challenges long-held assumptions about the randomness of coin tossing. After flipping coins over 350,000 times, the largest study of its kind, they found that coins have a slight tendency to land on the same side they started on.
This is, to put it mildly, a stunning conclusion. People have been flipping coins for thousands of years. Some people treat it as an almost sacred act of determination.
Here's how the scientists figured it out: Coins of several dozen different currencies "were flipped by hand and caught in the palms of 48 student participants to record the landing side." The "data collection process" included intense observation as well as videotaping of the results to ensure accuracy.
As the researchers note, the revelation that a coin will more likely land on its beginning side could create distinct advantages for competitors: If they space it out over long-enough game windows, they can use that knowledge to give themselves a major edge in any coin-toss competition.
As they put it: "If you bet a dollar on the outcome of a coin toss (i.e., paying 1 dollar to enter, and winning either 0 or 2 dollars depending on the outcome) and repeat the bet 1,000 times, knowing the starting position of the coin toss would earn you 19 dollars on average."
As a result, the researchers have a suggestion to ensure fairness in all coin toss matchups:
"[T]he starting position of the coin is best concealed."
Seems fair to me!
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