There aren't too many things in the world of politics that I would argue are a constant. Ideas, alliances, coalitions, perspectives, they're all in flux, all the time. But if there is one principle that I would say borders on being a political absolute, it's the proverb of the pendulum.
If you're unfamiliar, this is that largely unwritten rule that posits there exists a centrist state of ideological equilibrium in our culture – a center of gravity, as it were, for the American political universe. And it's around this center that everything hinges.
When one party or coalition gains control of enough levers of federal power, they begin to push society towards their preferred ideological wing. Large majorities and mandates allow their push to go quicker and reach farther. But inevitably, given enough time, that group will max out only to see their influence begin to constrict. Eventually it will contract back to equilibrium, before surging in an equal but opposite direction. Call it the electoral course correction.
Over and over this drama has unfolded, which is why I am so confounded every time I see either side pretend their current stranglehold on power has staying power. Perhaps that miscalculation could be excused if it were new groups of politicians that continued getting elected and ushering in these lurches to the left and right, respectively.
But it's not. It's the same old group of lifetime politicians, playing their part, riling up their base to push the country left, then right, then back again. And each time, the two sides conduct their surges with rhetoric that suggests they don't ever see a day coming when they'll be out of power again.
Yet that day is coming. It's always coming. And it will always bring with it a sense of regret for the new minority that they didn't govern with greater humility when they had the chance.
During the Obama years, Republicans had taken over Congress and begun to thwart much of the president's pet policies. An embittered President Obama first blustered, then followed through on his threat that if Congress wouldn't give him what he wanted, he had "a pen and a phone." He proceeded to build his entire administrative legacy on the flimsy back of executive orders.
It probably seemed genius at the time, and the lapdog media certainly loved it. But what happened at the end of Obama's tenure? The American people elected Donald Trump who, with a single stroke of the presidential pen, erased the near totality of Obama's "legislative accomplishments." Of course, it's not like Trump himself didn't fall for the same lure of governing through executive order, only to see it now undone as the pendulum swings back.
Moreover, think back to Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his ingenious idea to end the filibuster on judicial nominees. That seemed like a great plan when it was stifling career advancement for several minority appointments of Republican President George W. Bush. But you have to assume that idea wasn't nearly as popular to leftists when the pendulum flung itself in the other direction and the right celebrated Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett being sworn in as justices of the U.S. Supreme Court.
This reality is almost all I could think about watching the Alvin Bragg spectacle yesterday in New York. The circus that was Trump's arraignment will be just the tip of the iceberg. It was the door of Pandora's Box being lifted. On the one hand, the Right gleefully taunted Hillary Clinton with shouts of "Lock her up" at Trump rallies in 2016. Now that Trump is the one being perp walked, they'll be quick to tell you that the thought of politically persecuting a leader of the opposition party is stuff of third-world banana republics.
On the other hand, notice how the Left is barreling forward with their legal harassment of Trump, apparently under the impression that the pendulum is just going to suspend itself permanently on their side.
Shapiro is right. I don't pretend to know if all of this ends with Donald Trump back in the White House or not. But I do know that a course correction is coming sooner or later, the pendulum will swing, and the Democrats aren't going to like it one bit when it does.
