The media world was abuzz last week talking about the most recent installment of the Disney/DeSantis saga. This episode, "DeSantis Strikes Back," saw the rockstar conservative governor sign legislation depriving the corporate giant of its self-governing jurisdiction, the Reedy Creek Improvement District.
Since signing the bill into law, most major media has breathlessly reported how the rogue firebrand in Tallahassee is engaged in blatant retributive action that is sure to have calamitous effects that will be felt far and wide for years, decades, centuries, or perhaps even eons to come.
I'm more than content to let time prove or disprove their predictions, but for those who prefer a break from the hysterics, I would like to offer five things I am quite confident will not be changing as a result of the Reedy Creek dissolution legislation.
1. Disney is not leaving Orlando.
By far this is the most fantastic, and heart-stoppingly foolish suggestion to date. I have to solace myself with the belief that the people who are so earnestly sharing this scorching hot take on social and mainstream media are only doing so because A.) they are desperately trying to get someone to pay attention to them (yes, we're looking at you, Governor Polis of Colorado), or B.) they have never been to Disney's sprawling Orlando campus or even watched a documentary on it.
With four major theme parks, two waterparks, 25 luxury hotels, a high-end shopping and dining district, and over 200 restaurants, it is the height of stupidity to think that campus just gets tossed aside because of a political squabble. Yes, Disney has a ton of money at its disposal, but it has that kind of money precisely because it doesn't make stupid financial decisions like shuttering billions of dollars-worth of unrecoverable investments. Their underground corridors, elaborate theming, multi-million dollar attractions – these things aren't just torn down by summer carnival workers, loaded onto semi-trailers, toted across town and reassembled at 3 am under the cover of darkness.
Disney World is going nowhere and everyone with a brain knows that.
2. DeSantis is not going to be in trouble with voters.
I understand strategists are paid to put out this kind of thing, but sophistry like this is just embarrassing.
This assessment requires you to believe that all 70,000 Disney employees voted for DeSantis the first time, but now will all turn on him. It requires you to believe that Disney employees are all in lockstep with their company's political agenda. It requires you to ignore that DeSantis leads his closest Democrat competitor by 15 points in the polls. How do "strategists" like this get paid?
3. The ridiculous framing of the entire issue is not going away.
Since my family regularly visits Disney World for vacations, we follow one of the many Disney news sites for updates on ride closures, park additions, ticketing changes, and other information about park development. Check out the way they wrote up this recent fiasco:
Look at the story, not the tweet. The opening line casts DeSantis as the villain who "continues to seek revenge on Disney." It also utilizes the utterly false moniker "Don't Say Gay Bill" to describe the law that is actually about preventing inappropriate sex and gender conversations from happening in early elementary school. Nothing on the propaganda front is going to change as a result of this kerfuffle.
4. This is not going to withstand judicial review.
Disney has high-priced attorneys just like the state of Florida does. They both know what's coming. Disney will file suit and appeal on the basis of O'Hare Truck Service v. City of Northlake. The 1996 Supreme Court ruling stated clearly that when a government enacts an otherwise permissible law in order to punish an individual entity for their exercise of free speech, the law becomes unconstitutional at that point. There's little question that if the high court values stare decisis (which in its current form, it does), the law will eventually be struck down. I'm 99% sure that both sides know this.
5. This is not going to change the behavior of any of the major players.
Disney has a gay problem. It was apparent that CEO Bob Chapek wanted desperately to keep the company out of this foolish culture war battle. But the LGBT political lobby outside of Disney pales in comparison to the strength exhibited by the one on the inside, and he couldn't stop it. His video apology message to the company, where he promised to be a better "ally" moving forward looked like a hostage video. There's a reason.
Meanwhile, DeSantis is smart enough to know that #4 was highly likely. It's not going to take him by surprise if the courts overturn the law. If anything, that might actually give him a bigger platform and even greater momentum heading into his re-election. He sent the message he wanted to send to meddling corporations, it was undoubtedly received, and he successfully furthered the narrative that Republicans care about kids and parental rights, while his loyal opposition continues its bizarre crusade to freely talk with kindergartners about being non-binary.
I don't think that will disappoint him.
