Former President Donald Trump is considered in many quarters a shoo-in for the Republican nomination in 2024. That may prove to be the case, but there are at least a handful of us who think it may not be a cakewalk for the Donald. I believe at least a handful of his competitors have a shot (even if a long one) of pulling the upset and heading the Republican ticket next year.
Still, I will concede that Trump largely controls his own destiny. Consider how he wins and how he could actually lose the nomination (note that last word: I'm not talking about the general election here, only the primary against his fellow Republicans).
How Trump wins:
Some will say Trump just needs to be on the ballot and he'll carry an incumbent's advantage. Perhaps, but the mood of the Republican electorate will matter a great deal. If voters on the right are feeling vengeful and angry, that will almost guarantee a Trump victory. And as the international embarrassment that the Biden administration has been continues to devolve, there will be plenty of reason for voter rage.
Trump wins if his promise to be the embodiment of the right's retribution sells. If he can manage to discipline himself into a steady diet of "they hate me because they hate you," I think the anger and emotion that (sadly) defines our politics today carries him across the finish line.
Trump also wins if he's able to keep his showmanship as fresh feeling as it was in 2016. I mean, this speaks for itself:
If it's about revenge or ratings, Trump is the candidate in 2024.
How Trump loses:
Most political scientists will agree that Trump has always been his own biggest enemy. Along those very lines, I see three ways that Trump could lose, and all three are within his control.
First, as de facto leader of the Republican Party, the odds that the opposition party will successfully prosecute him and put him behind bars is slim. But if Trump keeps talking in interviews, he may end up putting himself there:
Bad. Not good. Neither is this:
Second, he starves himself of oxygen. Trump's showmanship (see above) is his lifeblood. No one thinks he is a policy wonk, a strategic thinker, or a paragon of presidential statesmanship. He needs to perform. So this isn't wise:
Of course I understand the theory behind it. But those theories are for traditional politicians, a group to which Donald Trump does not belong. He needs to banter and bicker. He plays into his rivals hands by taking himself off that debate stage.
Third, Trump loses if he gets stubborn about Covid. I know it isn't in Donald's DNA to admit mistake, but enough is now known about what the medical establishment that he enabled did that this is time for an exception. Something along the lines of:
"No one would have ever thought that medical experts would be so dishonest – especially me. I made a mistake in trusting them in my desire to protect you. While that desire remains as strong as ever, my trust in them has been destroyed just as yours has. It's time for a complete reset in the NIH and CDC."
If his rivals make Covid response a major issue in the primary, which they would be wise to do, this isn't going to cut it:
The drama of 2024 is just getting started and many pages of the script remain to be written. How the former president fares when the manuscript is complete is largely dependent on his own choices, and if there's one thing in politics more unpredictable than that, I don't know what it would be.
