Looking at the 2024 Republican primary, the smart folks say it is Donald Trump's to lose. With them are many of the polls, media focus, and traditional expectation whenever a former president is running for re-election (even if not as the current incumbent). I wrote yesterday about how Donald Trump wins as well as how he loses.
In my estimation, he is in the advantageous position of being able to control his own destiny. But what many people ignore is that he is also in the disadvantageous position of having his combative and petulant personality that so often erodes campaign discipline. That's why I don't think this road to the nomination is going to be nearly as smooth for Trump as many have suggested.
But who can beat him? The Republican field is large, no doubt. But let's say there are 6 that have the necessary combination of name-recognition, money, and appeal that could, even if a long shot, propel them into contention. So, here's how I think each of them could win the nomination (in the order of likelihood).
How Governor Ron DeSantis wins
He is – at this point – the only viable challenger to Trump. His polls lag behind the former president, no doubt, but here's what should concern the Trump team: unlike in 2016, Trump's opposition could coalesce behind DeSantis in a way they were never going to coalesce behind Ted Cruz the last time around.
Some in the analyst class suggest that DeSantis must go on offense against Trump, and begin attacking him and his failures directly. Call me crazy, but I don't think that is wise. That's Trump's home turf, insults and hostile exchanges are his lifeblood. If I'm advising DeSantis, I'd recommend that his attacks be focused in one area only: electability.
If DeSantis can make the compelling case that there are three serious candidates in this election cycle (Biden, Trump, and himself) and only two of them can actually win the general election (Biden and himself), I think that has potential to sway a significant number of Republican primary voters. I also think a refusal to insult Trump and be seen as joining the left and media's assault on him, is smart politics. There's no sense in winning the nomination, after all, if the MAGA movement won't support you in the general.
How Ambassador Nikki Haley wins
I think Haley is an extremely talented politician with one extremely difficult challenge. She will run on her record as UN Ambassador, but it was Donald Trump that put her there. In many ways, she owes her national profile to Trump, and it's going to be hard to distance herself from him.
But if DeSantis stumbles as the best alternative to Trump, Haley becomes a very attractive option – especially to a MAGA crowd that will appreciate her loyalty to Trump, as well as the rest of the conservative base that will appreciate her credentials. You know Republican voters would love to be the ones to put the first woman in the White House. Competence and the historical nature of her candidacy could propel her to a win if things fall the right way.
How Senator Tim Scott wins
Joe Biden won the presidency in 2020 by being the anti-Trump. That is, he was the anti-inflammatory, anti-provocative, anti-blustering, anti-loudmouth, anti-partisan candidate. Now, most everyone who knew anything about Joe Biden's long political career knew that was a farce. We knew Biden was a blustering loudmouth with a history of provocative, partisan, inflammatory conduct. His presidency has demonstrated he hasn't changed one bit.
That means it would be a perfect time for Republicans to offer somebody with a legacy of calm, disarming statesmanship. It would be the perfect time to run a guy like Tim Scott. Truth be told, he's my favorite and at this point is most likely to get my primary vote. Everything I've seen of him appeals to me.
I'm ready to turn down the temperature in the country. I'm ready to squash the culture of polarizing, partisan hatred. A kind, positive, inspirational leader like Tim Scott is made for such a moment. If enough Republican primary voters prioritize the same, he's the guy.
How entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy wins
It's really simple. Republicans have to decide they are done with (1) older voices, and (2) the political class. If the right decides it wants its own Obama – a young, charismatic guy, full of hopey/changey rhetoric (conservative style, of course), Vivek surges.
How Governor Chris Christie wins
So these last two are pipe dreams, but I'm putting them on this list as a courtesy. Chris Christie's strategy will be much like John Kasich in 2016 and Jon Huntsman before him: hope conservatives split their votes between a number of options, and enough moderate Republicans decide electing Democrat-lite is the way to go. That's the only way Christie gets nominated.
How Vice President Mike Pence wins
I like Mike Pence. I've known him for a long time. He will only win this nomination if God Himself performs a miracle. Not out of the realm of possibility, but also not highly likely it wouldn't seem.
