Buckle up, folks. Buckle up twice.
A Federal Reserve tracker of economic growth is pointing to an increased chance that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
Most Wall Street economists have been pointing to an increased chance of negative growth ahead, but figure it won't come until at least 2023.
However, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure, which tracks economic data in real time and adjusts continuously, sees second-quarter output contracting by 1%. Coupled with the first-quarter's decline of 1.6%, that would fit the technical definition of recession.
Economists see the recession arriving now and be like:
Honestly, it always seemed kind of fanciful to push this back until 2023. We're being suffocated by inflation, crushed by rising interest rates, walloped by skyrocketing fuel prices...recessions don't really wait around under those circumstances.
From an historical perspective, meanwhile, the situation does indeed look grim:
G National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions and expansions, notes that two consecutive quarters of negative growth isn't necessary for a recession to be declared. However, since World War II there never has been an instance where the U.S. contracted in consecutive quarters and was not in recession.
The recession looking at us now like:
Get ready for a nice long dose of Joe Biden's economy!
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