This is shocking! But actually it's really not that shocking.
[Florida House Candidate Anna] Luna is one of well over a hundred of candidates running this fall who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election1 and have a strong chance of winning their race. Of the 185 Republican candidates running for House, Senate and governor's seats who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, 124 — or 67 percent — are in races our forecast currently pins at "Solid R," meaning they have a 95-in-100 or better chance of winning. Overall, a bigger share of election deniers are running in Solid R races than Republican candidates in general: Of the 496 Republican candidates running for House, Senate and governor, 225 — or 45 percent — are in Solid R races.
This is really not all that surprising, at least if you understand American electoral politics. At this point it's about as easy as reading a map.
Let's go over it in detail:
- Voters just don't really care about this issue all that much. Yes, 2020 election denial has gotten pathetic at times. People make wild claims about that election with no evidence whatsoever. It's dumb. But is it a deal-breaker for most voters? No, not really. Voters are far more concerned about getting food on the table, gas in the car and money in the bank than they are about whether or not a House candidate thinks 2020 was rigged.
- Every side does it now. Many Republicans are denying the 2020 election results because Trump lost that year. Many Democrats denied the 2016 results because Hillary lost that year. Whoever loses in 2024, many on the other side is going to deny those results. This is just par for the course now and people don't really get bent out of shape about it.
- There are very much legitimate concerns about the 2020 election. Was the whole election "stolen" from Trump? Probably not. Was the 2020 election conducted under an opaque blanket of indefensibly insecure voting practices such as wide-open mail-in ballot schemes, unmonitored drop boxes, etc? Yes, absolutely. People recognize that the 2020 election was uniquely vulnerable to fraud and abuse, and so they're more amenable to hearing claims that it was "rigged" in some way.
