Nate Silver of polling firm FiveThirtyEight says the problem was not with him, it was with you.
· Nov 5, 2020 · NottheBee.com

Because of course it's your fault. Nate Silver is way too smart and sophisticated to be wrong.

Oh, and "#*^% you" if you believe otherwise (yeah, he said that):

(Original non-censored tweet here.)

The real problem?

"People have false impressions about how accurate polls are."

As Silver explains it, he might have been wrong, but he wasn't wrong wrong.

"On the one hand, you have the 2016 criticism, where maybe the polls were close but they were wrong directionally..."

Wrong "directionally."

In other words, they got the numbers right, it's just the other candidate won.

I don't see the problem there. Maybe you can try that with your sports bookie. "Hey, I know my team lost, but I got the score right!"

"…and then in 2020 say, ‘Oh, well the polls, I mean they may have been the right call, except in one state, but the margins were off,...'"

The margins were off, is all. What's the worst that could happen?

I need to get a job in a field where being wrong just isn't that big of a big deal.

"...That's the better criticism, but you have to pick one of those two. You can't do both."

You can't expect him to actually be accurate. He's just a pollster.

We need to stop making the mistake of trusting these guys.


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