A new study shows (to no one's surprise) that generative artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT, could eliminate 300 million full-time jobs.
Economists at Goldman Sachs Group (GSG) stated that improvements in AI technology might cause almost a quarter of existing positions in the United States and Europe to be replaced.
However, they say new jobs may be created, leading to a future productivity boom.
The report reads:
If generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption. Using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300mn full-time jobs to automation.
The good news is that worker displacement from automation has historically been offset by creation of new jobs, and the emergence of new occupations following technological innovations accounts for the vast majority of long-run employment growth. The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and higher productivity for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a productivity boom that raises economic growth substantially, although the timing of such a boom is hard to predict.
The report states that 18% of jobs worldwide could be computerized and that employees in advanced economies would be the most vulnerable compared to workers in developing countries.
AI today can already produce work that is indistinguishable from human output. GSG says AI could spark a "productivity boom" that would raise annual global gross domestic product by 7% over 10 years.
BUT they say it could also lead to "significant disruption" to the labor market.
A similar research paper by the University of Pennsylvania found that AI platforms could out-preform most white-collar workers.
GSG's report said the same thing. Administrative professionals and lawyers would be the most affected.
AI could partially automate two-thirds of current occupations.
We estimate that one-fourth of current work tasks could be automated by AI in the US (Exhibit 5, top panel), with particularly high exposures in administrative (46%) and legal (44%) professions and low exposures in physically-intensive professions such as construction (6%) and maintenance (4%).
AI could automate one-fourth of current work tasks in the US and Europe.
Here's the chart showing that globally, 18% of work could be done by AI.
Not only do we need to worry about AI taking our jobs, but Europol (the law enforcement agency) is also warning us that AI could aid online fraudsters and cyber criminals and may "become a key criminal business model of the future."
Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan told the Sun that we should not fear AI and we should "trust" the bots.
People should trust that computers which think and learn won't be used to undermine their safety, their privacy, their rights or their health.
We want to make sure that AI is complementing the way we work in the UK, not disrupting it – making our jobs better, rather than taking them away.
Just trust the bots, they said.
It'll be fine, they said...
