Narrator: Those paying attention know the US has already been in a recession for several months.
It really is amazing. The president is out here eating ice cream in literal meme moments...
...while Bloomberg has now reached 100% certainty that the US is facing a recession.
If the media was honest (it isn't), it would have told America back in August that we had entered a recession, but it's been holding back as long as possible because there's an election coming up and that would make lefties look bad.
Instead, they were writing things like this:
Now I don't usually like to toot my own horn (that's a lie), but I've been telling you about this for a long time. I wrote this up in April:
I told you on July 1 that a bear market was coming.
I also told you that the Federal Reserve data showed we were in a recession, and noted in September that the Bureau of Economic Development confirmed the data yet again.
I pointed out that the White House then changed the definition of recession in late July to avoid the inevitable:
Heck, I wrote a bunch of headlines in 2021 (here, here, here, and here) warning you about spending and recession.
Twitter founder Jack Dorsey and Michael Burry, the analyst who called the 2008 recession, also warned about this a year and a half ago.
None of this should be a surprise.
But here's Bloomberg this week:
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be "very slight," as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.
But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.
You know it, I know it, we all know it.
I buy groceries and gas like all of you. I feel this reality in my bones.
The model is more certain of a recession than other forecasts. A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier.
The forecasts provide a sharp contrast to Biden's upbeat tone. The president has focused on strong job growth as he campaigns to help Democrats retain their House and Senate majorities in elections three weeks from now.
But inflation, which has hovered near a four-decade high, has been a drag on Democrats' prospects in an election where polls indicate the economy is voters' top issue.
But there is a silver lining!
While the chance of a recession within 12 months has reached 100% under the model, the odds of a recession hitting sooner are also up. The model forecasts the likelihood of a recession within 11 months at 73%, up from 30%, and the 10-month probability rose to 25% from 0%.
Whoops, that's not a silver lining at all. My bad.
Anyway, I had to say I told ya so, but... well, I told ya so.
For several years straight.
