It's been roughly half a decade that we've been dealing with the increasingly brutal effects of (sigh) "meatflation."
Meat prices are high. They went up during the pandemic, they didn't go down, and in many cases they just got higher.
Yet apparently things could get a good bit worse in the near future, at least as far as beef is concerned.
That's the assertion, anyway, in — what else? — Beef Magazine:
The first four months this year saw beef production steady to slightly higher than last year. Production started declining in May, and it continues to drop off through the summer. But the largest declines in beef production are still out in front of us.
"Placements," or the number of cattle on feedlots prepping for slaughter, are evidently down 10% nationwide from 2014, according to Beef. Regionally the numbers are even higher: 18% in Texas, 11% in Kansas, 13% in Iowa.
The magazine is unsparing in its analysis:
Placements will continue to drop, and production will continue to fall, not only for weeks but for months and even for the next couple of years. Top it off with the realization that both Brazil and Australia are both at the same point as the U.S. in the cattle cycle, and what we're looking at is a vast decline in global beef production in the next couple of years.
Big takeaway: That ribeye on your grill just got a whooole lot more valuable.
But what exactly is driving this slowdown? It's not like we're in the grip of "the pandemic" with its ubiquitous "supply chain issues" and other crises.
According to one analysis, U.S.-based herds have been considerably shrunk by "ongoing drought, higher producer input costs, supply chain issues, and more."
(Okay, so it's still a little about the "supply chain!")
The higher input costs, particularly the cost of buying steers themselves, mean cattle farmers can't easily replenish their herds like they used to. And that's leading to trouble both now and down the road:
In the face of historically high cattle prices, margins are going to suffer. The biggest question for manufacturers is when the domestic herd is going to recover from years of liquidation. ... Some outlooks were saying the herd would be replenished by 2025, and others were saying short supply and high cattle prices will continue well into 2025. However, new predictions show we can expect to see continued struggles in 2025 and beyond
In other words, big cattle herds have temporarily come to an end.
Overall, commercial red meat production is reportedly way down, with officials reportedly posting a 10% year-over-year decline for August, a huge drop.
Ongoing high prices for beef are not good; as we all know, prices are already insanely elevated.
Let's hope those herds can get rebuilt sooner rather than later.
P.S. Now check out our latest video, featuring Kirk Cameron 👇
