I know there were still those among us who were truly convinced that 2024 was going to be maybe, sort of, somehow, a fair fight.
But even those holdouts can finally disabuse themselves of that notion:
Based on the latest available data and an enhanced version of a stress-tested methodology from a scholarly journal, a new study by Just Facts has found that about 10 percent to 27 percent of non-citizen adults in the U.S. are now illegally registered to vote.
Researchers originally made this determination based on data pulled from the 2008 election. They found:
- "roughly one quarter of non-citizens" in the U.S. "were likely registered to vote;"
- "6.4 percent of non-citizens actually voted;"
- "81.8 percent of them 'reported voting for Barack Obama;'" and
- "illegal votes cast by non-citizens 'likely' changed 'important election outcomes' in favor of Democrats, 'including Electoral College votes' and a 'pivotal' U.S. Senate race that enabled Democrats to pass Obamacare."
There has been some dispute over these figures, including recently from the Washington Post's Glenn Kessler, who claimed that a 2023 data review revealed a much lower incidence rate of 1% of illegals voting.
Yet recent voting data from the 2022 midterms does appear to indicate the considerably higher upper bound of 27%, a rate high enough to significantly influence U.S. elections (many elections are razor thin - even a few thousand votes in one direction would secure victory).
There are, it's worth stressing, a lot of illegal immigrants in the US:
The U.S. Census recorded more than 19 million adult non-citizens living in the U.S. during 2022. Given their voter registration rates, this means that about two million to five million of them are illegally registered to vote. These figures are potentially high enough to overturn the will of the American people in major elections, including congressional seats and the presidency.
Note that, according to Just Facts, "uncertainties in the data" could be leading to an undercount of the illegal immigrant voting rate: "The Census Bureau counts only the number of non-citizens who respond to Census surveys," for instance, "and some immigrants, especially unauthorized ones, avoid such surveys out of fear of exposing their immigration status."
"Certain groups of immigrants," meanwhile, "often misrepresent themselves as citizens in Census surveys."
Republicans recently introduced legislation to require proof of citizenship in U.S. elections, though it is highly unlikely to pass Congress, let alone get signed by the president.
Gird yourselves for November, folks. The fix might already be in.
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